Mandel's Mailbag: Most improved team from the portal? First P4 coach fired in 2024? (2024)

This week’s mailbag is dedicated to Karen Mandel, mom of Stewart Mandel, who passed away unexpectedly on April 29.

I know this sounds cliché, but she truly was my biggest fan. In wading through her keepsakes, I found printouts of old SI.com mailbags, Sports Illustrated issues in which I had a byline and a promotional flyer for the book I published in 2007. She was not a sports fan, and I doubt she understood much of anything I wrote, but she certainly read it. And she always called or e-mailed me with excitement anytime a neighbor, new friend or random doctor told her they were a reader of mine.

I’m fortunate to have so many great friends and colleagues who’ve reached out and checked on me, often repeatedly, over the past few weeks. Truly, I’m doing OK. In fact, I feel a bit guilty in finding so many silver linings in an otherwise heartbreaking turn of events.

I got to spend more time with my brother and his family in Cincinnati than I had in at least 20 years. I got to relive so many great childhood memories just in going through her stuff.

Example: At 16, I spent the summer working at famed amusem*nt park Kings Island, selling oversized puppets to children who begged their parents to buy one. She’d saved my nametag — and one of the puppets.

My mom was a kindergarten teacher at my elementary school, and lo and behold, some of my own teachers from nearly 40 years ago attended the funeral. The rabbi from my Bar Mitzvah, who I hadn’t seen since college, led the service.

But most importantly, I take such pride and delight in the relationship she had with her 8-year-old granddaughter. In fact, we’d done a FaceTime with her just two days earlier.

I know this was a bummer of an introduction to a normally fun little college football column, so thanks for indulging me. I got an unanticipated two-week break from work and came back recharged and ready to write.

Which team improved the most from the transfer portal? — Trevor S.

I’ve got to say Miami, in part because the Canes, 6-7 last season, had more urgency to improve than an Ohio State or Ole Miss, but also, they signed a lot of big-time dudes.

Most obviously, Washington State QB Cam Ward may be the most dynamic guy to play that position at Miami since … Jacory Harris? Further back? And then Mario Cristobal this spring went and added star Oregon State running back Damien Martinez, who ran for 2,167 yards on 6.1 yards per attempt his first two seasons. Those two plus Houston receiver Sam Brown (62 catches for 815 yards last season) represent a big upgrade for the offense.

But the bulk of Miami’s 14 additions came on defense, most recently Michigan State defensive tackle Simeon Barrow Jr., a career 30-game starter who notched 22 QB pressures and two blocked field goals last season. LSU’s Brian Kelly didn’t name names in his anachronistic rant on “buying” players, but Barrow is one of the guys the Tigers wanted. Fellow D-linemen C.J. Clark (NC State), Marley Cook (Middle Tennessee) and Elijah Alston (Marshall) are all sixth-year guys who will vie for starting jobs. And former Washington defensive back Mishael Powell was a key component throughout the Huskies’ 25-3 run the past two seasons.

There will be understandable skepticism surrounding Mario Cristobal and that program until they prove themselves. It’s a lot like the perception of Steve Sarkisian and Texas before last season. But with that roster, there’s really no excuse why Miami can’t contend for an ACC championship — a feat it has somehow never accomplished in the 20 years since the school joined that league.

With the mix of the expanded playoffs and the drastic conference realignment, can 2024 be considered the most revolutionary year in college football history? —Richard R., Chicago

I’m not sure anything in the past comes close. We could pinpoint specific years where something significant changed — the final AP poll moving to after the bowl games in 1965, freshman eligibility in 1972, the flurry of realignment moves in the early ’90s, the birth of the BCS in 1998 or the CFP in 2014.

But this is everything —the end of the Pac-12, the beginning of the cross-continent Big Ten and extra-loaded SEC, the 12-team Playoff, the two-minute warning, unlimited transfers, the lifting of pay-for-play restrictions … and possibly soon, a House v. NCAA settlement that will for the first time create revenue sharing with athletes.

Save for lengthening the field to 150 yards or installing a four-point field goal, the 2024 version of college football would be completely unrecognizable to fans from even 10 years ago, much less 25 or 50.

Historically, the closest thing may be the two-year period of 1935-36, when the following events occurred: the first Heisman being awarded, the first-ever AP poll naming a national champion and the creation of the Orange, Sugar and Sun bowls (the first new postseason games since the Rose in 1902). We even had some mild realignment, with seven schools (most notably Wake Forest) joining and one member (Virginia) leaving the Southern Conference, creating the sport’s original 16-team super conference.

However, only two SoCon members remain from that time — The Citadel and Furman. Here’s wishing you better luck, SEC and Big Ten.

It looks like the NFL is going to put a game on NBC and a game on Fox directly against first-round college playoff games on Dec. 21. How much of a problem is this for the CFP? —Rob, Atlanta

It’s not great!

Last year, 93 of the 100 most-watched television broadcasts were NFL games. College football does better ratings than almost anything that’s not the NFL, yet even its most-watched game of the year, Ohio State vs. Michigan (19.1 million viewers), came in 58th on that list. I’d venture to guess NBC and Fox could put even the crappiest regular-season game in one of those windows and it will still siphon viewers away from those early CFP games, which ESPN valued at $25 million per game in its new deal — around a fourth of what Amazon paid to show one Black Friday NFL game last season.

Now … it’s unclear whether any of this really matters.

People who care about college football are going to tune in for those CFP games regardless — especially given the novelty of them being the first-ever on-campus tourney games at the FBS level. The concern for the CFP and ESPN will be whether they can draw in more casual fans — the people I refer to as diehard New York Jets or Philadelphia Eagles fans who might turn on college football on a Saturday if they see Texas is playing Michigan. The CFP would want to suck in as many of those people as they can in the early rounds to drive interest in the later ones.

However, there is one other possibility at play here. The CFP’s extension with ESPN announced earlier this year allows ESPN to sublicense a few games to other networks. If by chance NBC or Fox ends up being one of the networks that lands one of those games and then airs it either going into or coming out of their NFL game that day, it might actually help boost viewership rather than detract from it.

But there’s not yet been any news about ESPN selling any of the CFP games.

Who will be the first P4 head coach fired this season? — Sonny W.

Tough one.

Things kind of flipped from 2021 and 2022, when USC’s Clay Helton, Nebraska’s Scott Frost, Arizona State’s Herm Edwards and Wisconsin’s Paul Chryst all got fired within the first month of the season, to last season, when we went until mid-November before the first dismissals for on-field performance (Mississippi State’s Zach Arnett and Texas A&M’s Jimbo Fisher). Part of me thinks that was a fluke and the itchy trigger fingers will return this season.

But part of me also wonders whether ADs will see that Alabama, Washington, Arizona and Michigan managed to still hire quality coaches in January, and their programs didn’t implode for missing the early portal window.

In terms of who’s on the hottest seats entering the season, two names jump to mind: Arkansas’ Sam Pittman and Baylor’s Dave Aranda. Both guys were the toasts of their towns as recently as 2021, with Pittman leading the Razorbacks to nine wins and Aranda’s Bears winning a Big 12 title and the Sugar Bowl. Since then, though, Pittman is 4-12 in the SEC, including 1-7 last season, and like Fisher before him, was desperate enough this offseason to play the Bobby Petrino card. Aranda plummeted from 12-2 to 6-7 to 3-9. Last week, Sam Khan recounted the scene of Aranda visiting AD Mack Rhoads before the Bears’ season finale to plead for another year.

Aranda has trips to Utah and Colorado the first month of the season, wrapped around a visit from pesky Air Force, followed by a softer October. Arkansas has a tough Week 2 trip to Oklahoma State, but its most difficult SEC games come over the back half of the season (including a brutal November with Ole Miss, Texas and Missouri).

Of the two, Arkansas seems more likely to burn the house down if things go south. I highly recommend his team doesn’t get embarrassed by Ollie Gordon II in Stillwater.

When a school is “behind” other schools in NIL, who is to blame? The coach, administrators, staff? — Riyad K., Chicago

That falls squarely on the AD, either for failing to grasp the urgency of NIL/collectives soon enough, not being in open communication with his or her coaches, not holding enough influence over his or her boosters or a combination of the three.

Meanwhile, the AD would assuredly blame you, the fans, for not giving them more money.

Stew, what’s your gut or mind tell you about Arizona football this year? Is there going to be a huge dropoff with the loss of Jedd Fisch and replacing him with Brent Brennan? I’m not too hopeful. Fisch woke up Tucson, and since Brennan has been here I’ve been put to sleep with the lack of energy around the program. — Adam A.

Adam, why such pessimism coming off a 10-win season? Brennan may not be as outwardly high-energy as Fisch, but he did wonders at San Jose State. And despite some attrition, this should still be the most talented roster the program has fielded in quite some time. Just getting back star QB Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan were huge wins on their own. Stud cornerback Tacario Davis flirted with the portal for nearly four months, but he’s now staying, too.

The biggest question I have for Arizona is the same one I have for a lot of programs this season: How do the Wildcats fit into their new conference? Had the Pac-12 remained in existence this coming season, Oregon would be my clear favorite, with a gap to either Utah or Arizona next. But in the Big 12, who the heck knows? I could see any of Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Kansas or Kansas State winning the conference. But of course, at least one of those is going to finish no better than fifth.

It may come down to who has the most favorable schedule, and Arizona’s is not bad at all. On the one hand, it plays back-to-back September road games at K-State and Utah. However, in a fun little realignment quirk, the trip to Manhattan is a previously scheduled nonconference game that does not count against the standings. So, technically, no K-State, plus no Oklahoma State, no Kansas, and no Iowa State. If the 2023 Arizona team had played this league schedule last year, it would have finished no worse than 7-2.

But, we don’t know whether this team will be as good as last year’s, plus I’m sure a couple of teams on that schedule will be better than expected — BYU? UCF? TCU?

There could be a dropoff, but I’d be surprised if it’s a “huge” dropoff. So wipe that frown upside down, Adam.

Nine of Florida State’s 10 draft picks were transfers. That’s crazy, right? Or is this the new normal? — Josh V., Orlando

Much like with the portal in general, it’s probably going to vary by sport and by year.

Of the five schools that produced the most draft picks this year, FSU was an extreme outlier. All but one of Michigan’s 13 selections signed with the Wolverines out of high school, as did eight of Texas’ 11 draftees. And it was eight of 10 for Alabama and Washington, with the caveat that the Huskies’ highest pick, QB Michael Penix Jr., was a transfer.

But among the coaches at those five programs, Florida State’s Mike Norvell walked into the biggest rebuilding project, and he aggressively used the portal to upgrade the talent level. And he’s using it quite a bit again to replace the guys FSU lost. Coming out of spring, it appears somewhere around eight portal additions might start for the Noles this fall.

But I believe the programs that enjoy sustained success will be those that aren’t nearly as portal-dependent. Most notably Georgia. Ohio State, which a year from now might boast a Michigan-like list of draft picks, added a couple of high-profile transfers this offseason, but most of the Buckeyes’ best players will be entering their fourth year on campus.

It may be that Norvell’s program normalizes itself soon as well, but he’s now entering only his fifth season and did not benefit from the same type of stability Ryan Day walked into or that Kirby Smart has been cultivating for nine years.

With four teams being removed from bowl consideration as first-round CFP losers, will we see a reduction in the number of bowl games? Last year we were already short of six-win teams. Would they allow the four first-round CFP losers to also play in a bowl? — Scot, Glendale, Ariz.

I’m going to say no to your last part. You think there are a lot of bowl opt-outs now? Imagine if it was a team playing in a bowl after having already been knocked out of the Playoff. Would they even accept the invite?

But I’m not getting the sense anyone considers this a crisis. In fact, there’s been talk of addingmore bowls to the current 41-game FBS lineup (which now includes six CFP bowls). That’s in part because the number of FBS teams is in the midst of expanding from 130 in 2021 to 137 by 2026. A hearty welcome to Missouri State, which announced its intention to move up to Conference USA just last week.

There was a time not long ago when the NCAA tightly regulated the number of bowls and the six-win requirement, but in recent years we’ve seen a broader acceptance that the so-called “sanctity” of bowls has long gone out the window. The unusual pandemic-related oddities of the 2020 and 2021 bowl seasons, when some teams dropped out at the 11th hour and got replaced by others (remember 5-7 Rutgers going to the Gator Bowl?) kind of put the whole enterprise into perspective.

The expanded Playoff is likely going to suck all the oxygen out of the postseason beginning in mid-December. I’m still going to watch the Pop-Tarts Bowl, the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, etc., because I love college football and find the food stuff wildly entertaining. But I’m not going to lose sleep over the teams’ qualifications.

Heck, I think it’d be cool if they went ahead and created 26 more and we opened it up to everybody. Interested cities and sponsors, feel free to apply. Who wouldn’t tune in out of morbid curiosity to the 1-800-GOT-JUNK Bowl between 1-11 Kent State and 2-10 Louisiana-Monroe? The losing coach gets a postgame trash bath.

Dear Stewart, what team is the most glaring omission from the EA College Football Deluxe Edition cover, and which team do you think is featured too prominently? — Jason, Salt Lake City

First of all, can we just stop and appreciate the significance of seeing a video game cover with the real names of Donovan Edwards, Quinn Ewers, Jalen Milroe, Travis Hunter, Carson Beck, Quinshon Judkins on the back of their jerseys? I can remember playing that game way back in college in the mid-’90s when we all knew No. 28 on Florida State was Warrick Dunn but — wink, wink — let’s pretend otherwise. Had the NCAA stopped living in denial and let EA, jersey designers, etc., do this a long time ago, they may have staved off some of the lawsuits and existential crises.

Not to mention, when I saw that cover with some of the biggest stars in the country of this season, it sunk in what a tremendous promotional vehicle they denied themselves all this time. Imagine how many teens around the country who wouldn’t otherwise know who Quinshon Judkins is are going to play that game later this summer and, as a result, be more likely to tune in to one of his real games this fall.

I did note, we got a USC jersey and an Oregon helmet, but no image I could detect of Washington, the West Coast program that reached the national championship game last season. Perhaps because it has no remaining recognizable players.

Staying in that state, if you’re going to have school flags waving at the front of the tunnel, surely one of them should be Ol’ Crimson, what with its two-decade weekly GameDay presence.

All in all, though, it’s a pretty damn cool cover. After an 11-year wait, I wouldn’t waste much breath nitpicking the thing.

(Top photo of Mario Cristobal: Megan Briggs / Getty Images)